China and Australia’s prickly diplomatic relationship has dominated foreign policy in recent years, with provocative rhetoric and public spats showing no signs of easing.
Relations went into rapid decline after Beijing and Canberra clashed over several issues, resulting in a diplomatic stalemate and damaging tit-for-tat trade war.
Among the main disputes were Canberra’s call for a probe into the origins of COVID-19, the decision to ban Huawei and accusations from Australia of Chinese political interference.
But a change in government has brought a sense of cautious optimism that tensions can be tempered.
On Monday, China’s government broke a more than two-year freeze on contact with Australian ministers, sending a congratulatory message to new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese side was “ready to work with the Australian side to review the past, look into the future and uphold the principle of mutual respect”.
Mr Albanese told reporters on Tuesday that he welcomed the Chinese Premier’s letter, saying that Australia seeks good relations with all countries.
“I welcome all congratulations from all over the world. We will respond appropriately in time when I am back in Australia,” he said.
But he also reiterated that “it’s not Australia that has changed, China has changed”, and called for Beijing to lift trade sanctions.
Despite the warmer signals, Chinese analysts are only hopeful for modest improvements after years of what Beijing described as Australia’s “anti-China crusade”.
They say we can expect less “bombastic talk”, a return of diplomacy, and more focus on regional relationships rather than just strengthening US ties.
Similar stance, new approach
In the lead-up to the election, former prime minister Scott Morrison accused Labor of being soft on China.
But Mr Albanese agreed with the Morrison government that China had changed since Labor was last in power in 2013 – the same year Xi Jinping became president.
“It’s more forward-leaning, it’s more aggressive,” Mr Albanese said in a leaders’ debate earlier this month.
“That means that Australia of course must respond.”
Professor James Laurenceson from the UTS Australia-China Relations Institute said there was a possibility for an improved trajectory, but he doesn’t expect a “reset”.
Labor shared concerns about China’s more assertive foreign policy behaviour that “sometimes skirts international rules and norms”, but there would likely be a shift away from provocation, he said.
“Labor’s approach for dealing with this challenge is different to the Morrison government’s – less bombastic talk, more practical action, and more emphasis on non-hard power responses like diplomacy,” Professor Laurenceson told the ABC.
Pichamon Yeophantong, a senior lecturer at UNSW Canberra, agreed that there would be a change in rhetoric that would be “less provocative, more restrained”.
“However, I think there are still limitations regarding what extent a change in tone would help to address some of the more structural and fundamental issues that underlie tensions,” Dr Yeophantong said.
Conflict surrounding human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and provocations in the South China Sea are not going to go away, Professor Laurenceson said.
But that doesn’t mean the relationship can’t improve.
“There’s plenty of countries around the world that express publicly their concerns about those issues … despite doing that, they still managed to maintain relations with China in a far better state than Australia’s relationship with China currently is,” he said.
Focus on non-competitive relationships
Over the years, Australia has focused on strengthening relationships in the region that are firmly aligned with the United States and designed to compete with Beijing.
The Morrison government restarted the Quad security partnership with the US, India and Japan, which has long drawn both headlines and the ire of the Chinese government.
It then joined with the United Kingdom and the US to form the AUKUS agreement last year — a move widely seen as an attempt to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
“Those two initiatives were both set up through the lens of US-China strategic competition,” Professor Laurenceson said.
“And by joining them, Australia made very clear its preference to maintain US primacy in the Asia-Pacific region.
“I think that’s what’s going to change under a Labor government … Labor is also more willing to engage with regional partners on their own terms and listen to their advice.”
Dr Yeophantong said it was clear that the new government was unlikely to change its position on issues like support for AUKUS and the Quad, but hoped it would focus on engaging more widely with the region.
“So to look beyond the China issue, and to really focus on building up and rebuilding bilateral relationships and multilateral relationships with countries in this region,” she said.
Penny Wong, who has been has been sworn in as Labor’s Foreign Affairs Minister, has signalled her intentions to work more closely with South-East Asia and didn’t waste any time reaching out to the Pacific.
She posted a video statement on Twitter soon after being sworn in “to share some thoughts with our Pacific family”.
“We want to help build a stronger Pacific family, that is why we will do more. But we will also do it better,” she said.
Senator Wong has since announced that she plans to visit Fiji as early as Thursday.
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During the election campaign, Labor pledged to boost engagement with the region by creating a South-East Asia office within the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and appointing a “dedicated high-level roving regional ambassador”.
Mr Albanese also promised to travel to Indonesia as his first diplomatic visit after attending the Quad meeting in Japan.
“We live in a region whereby in the future, we will have China, India and Indonesia as giants,” he said.
Remaining strong on defence
Given China’s ongoing aggression towards Taiwan and increasing influence in the Pacific, Australia’s military and defence policies across the region appear unlikely to change.
Both the Coalition and Labor were accused of looking the other way when China and the Solomon Islands signed a controversial security pact.
Mr Albanese on Tuesday said that Solomon Islands was discussed at the Quad meetings, “including the issue in which China is seeking to exert more influence in the Pacific”.
He said the Quad had discussed the question “how do we make sure we push our shared values in the region at a time when China is clearly seeking to exert more influence?”
The comments came as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi began a Pacific trip of unprecedented scope and ambition.
He plans to travel to eight countries across the region in 10 days.
Dr Jian Zhang, from Canberra’s Australia Defence Academy, said while Mr Albanese’s election victory provided an opportunity to improve relations with China the move would need to be managed cautiously.
“Improved relations are more likely to be managed diplomatically by trying to take moderate measures without involving Australia’s key security interests, not directly challenging China, and not actively stirring,” he told the ABC.
It will be “a precarious balancing act” for the Albanese government, Dr Yeophantong said.
Labor will need to remain strong on national security and proactive in reaching out to other countries in the region, while mending and building bridges with Beijing, she said.
She said the Albanese government was sending strong signals that it would follow a similar foreign policy approach to what the Biden government was doing with China and the Indo-Pacific more broadly.
“If we were to look at the Biden administration, we see restrained rhetoric, but also that stronger focus on broader engagement with countries in the Indo-Pacific,” she said.
“Biden himself has been trying to engage a variety of countries on a flurry of visits in the region. But at the heart of it is about carving out a clear identity.”
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