Races to Watch in the Pennsylvania Primary | Elections

Another pivotal primary night has arrived.

On May 17, voters will head to the polls in Pennsylvania to choose a candidate to succeed a retiring Republican senator in the 50-50 chamber and a term-limited Democratic governor. Those hotly contested races will be yet another test of the impact former President Donald Trump has on the electorate, especially in this state that went for Trump in 2016 but now-President Joe Biden in 2020.

Pennsylvania will also set general election matchups for a range of House seats that have been redrawn during the once-a-decade redistricting process.

Here’s a rundown of the key races to watch in Pennsylvania on election night.

The Republican Senate primary to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey has been a roller coaster ride, with a possible surprise ending. For months, the front-runners were celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz (who received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement) and former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick (who tried but failed to win Trump’s backing).

The two candidates lobbed accusations back and forth, creating an opening for a third candidate unscathed by the ad wars. In the final week or two of the race, a previously little-known candidate – conservative firebrand Kathy Barnette – began gaining ground. Barnette is the author of the book, “Nothing to Lose, Everything to Gain: Being Black and Conservative in America,” which “explains why liberal policies have failed the Black community.”

Several polls late in the campaign found Oz, McCormick and Barnette bunched together, with any of them potential winners. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, Doug Mastriano – a state senator who worked to overturn the 2020 election and sent buses to the Jan. 6 protests at the Capitol – had teamed up with Barnette and solidified his position in the polls. For the first time in decades, the state party did not make an endorsement in the gubernatorial race, helping keep the primary field large.
The possibility that the GOP could nominate Barnette and Mastriano worried some Republicans. Days before the election, one candidate, state Senate leader Jake Corman, dropped out of the race and endorsed another candidate, former Rep. Lou Barletta, to help consolidate the opposition to Mastriano. Another candidate back in the pack, former GOP Rep. Melissa Hart, followed suit. But the moves came after tens of thousands of GOP primary voters had already cast ballots, calling into question how well a stop-Barnette campaign could work.

Victories by Barnette and Mastriano could weaken the GOP’s chances of winning either race in November, because Pennsylvania is a swing state with many voters who may not find the most pro-Trump approach appealing.

“The GOP can toss away a prime opportunity with the outcomes of the primaries,” said Christopher Borick. With the historical tendency for parties not holding the White House to do well in midterm elections, he said, the GOP has “a major wind at its back. But there is a significant chance they could throw it away with the selection of poor general election candidates.”

The Democratic primaries have been less dramatic.

In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a burly former mayor, is easily leading two other credible candidates — U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta. On the Sunday before Election Day, Fetterman experienced a stroke but his campaign said it was minor and he will fully recover.

In the gubernatorial race, Attorney General Josh Shapiro faced no significant opposition. Shapiro even spent money to air an ad highlighting some of Mastriano’s conservative views, presumably to boost his chances of winning the GOP nomination, which could ease Shapiro’s path to victory.

In Pennsylvania, the two parties nominate the governor and the lieutenant governor separately. With Fetterman vacating the office, both parties have competitive primaries.

The front-runners on the Democratic side are state Reps. Austin Davis and Brian Sims. Davis, the more well-funded of the two candidates, would become the state’s first Black lieutenant governor. Sims was the first openly LGBTQ state legislator in Pennsylvania; Sims’ home base in Philadelphia could become an advantage in the primary.

The Republican field is large. It includes Northampton County Executive John Brown, former state Rep. Jeff Coleman, veteran and businessman Teddy Daniels, state Rep. Carrie DelRosso, state Rep. Russ Diamond, New Castle Mayor Chris Frye, businessman and veteran James Jones, former state Rep. Rick Saccone, and anti-lockdown activist Clarice Schillinger.

Republicans have a primary to determine who will face Democratic Rep. Christy Houlahan in a district based in Reading and portions of the Philadelphia suburbs.

The GOP field includes Guy Ciarrocchi, former president of the Chester County Chamber of Commerce; contractor Steve Fanelli; businesswoman Regina Mauro; and real estate investor Ron Vogel. Whoever the Republican nominee is, Houlahan would start as the favorite.

Republicans have a two-candidate primary to see who will take on Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in this district based in the Lehigh Valley.

The GOP primary pits Lisa Scheller – a businesswoman, former Lehigh County Commissioner, and the nominee against Wild in 2020 – against technology firm owner Kevin Dellicker. Scheller is better funded and has received support from the party establishment, but Dellicker has run a more grass-roots campaign and criticized Scheller for doing business in China.

The race is expected to be highly competitive in the general election.

This northeastern Pennsylvania district includes a lot of blue-collar voters who have drifted away from the Democrats, leaving Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright fighting for his political life.

The GOP primary field includes Jim Bognet, the nominee who lost to Cartwright in 2020, and former Hazelton Mayor Mike Marsicano, a former Democrat who lost to Bognet in the 2020 Republican primary for the seat. Bognet, who worked for the U.S. Export-Import Bank during the Trump administration, has secured Trump’s endorsement.

In this district, which covers parts of Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties, it’s the Democrats who have a contested primary as they seek to oust GOP Rep. Scott Perry.

The Democratic contenders are Carlisle School Board member and combat veteran Rick Coplen and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels.

Perry’s staunch conservative persona made him a top Democratic target in 2020, but they fell short. Despite revelations about his involvement in the lead-up to the events of Jan. 6, which has attracted the interest of the congressional Jan. 6 investigative committee, the subsequent round of redistricting has made Perry’s position a bit more secure.

This solidly Democratic seat based in Pittsburgh is coming open due to the retirement of long-serving Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle.

The Democrats have a large field of primary hopefuls, including law professor Jerry Dickinson; Steve Irwin, a former aide to Sen. Arlen Specter and Gov. Ed Rendell; state Rep. Summer Lee; activist Will Parker; and former higher education official Jeff Woodard.

The two leading candidates are sparring aggressively – Lee from the left and Irwin from the center. Lee has received the backing of prominent progressives Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Irwin, who has raised more money, has the backing of Doyle and other establishment Democrats in the state.

Republicans should not be a factor in the general election, unless their leading candidate, a local borough councilman named Mike Doyle, confuses enough Democrats into thinking the retiring incumbent is still on the ballot.

Lamb is vacating this competitive Pittsburgh-area seat to run for Senate. Both parties have contested primaries.

The Democratic field features veteran and voting rights lawyer Chris Deluzio and LGBTQ advocate Sean Meloy, who previously worked for Democratic Rep. Doyle.

The Republican field includes former Bellevue town councilwoman Kathy Coder; consultant Jason Killmeyer; and former Ross town commissioner Jeremy Shaffer. Shaffer is regarded as the best positioned Republican contender for the fall.