Republican prospects rise as undecided voters focus on inflation

Forty-year-high inflation is swaying more potential voters than the end of Roe v. Wade after five decades

At the same time, many previously undecided voters say they’ll support Republican congressional candidates and potentially tip control away from Democrats, according to an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll

Five charts from the poll offer insights into the election just days before Nov. 8. The poll of 1,000 likely midterm voters, taken by landline and cellphone, Oct. 19-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 

The results also suggest a much bigger gap than others have found so far, such as the nonpartisan, data-crunching FiveThirtyEight website, which shows voters narrowly favor (44.9%-44.6%) a Republican over a Democrat on a generic ballot

Republicans need a net gain of only five seats to win back the House, and just one seat in the Senate.

Without mentioning specific candidates’ names or districts, the poll measures a party’s standing in congressional races. It’s an imperfect way to predict election outcomes, but offers a view on national trends.

In July, the USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll asked an open-ended question: Thinking about your vote for U.S. Congress this November, what’s the most important issue that will affect your vote?

The majority of respondents say the country is headed down the wrong track, but more are now saying the U.S. has turned in the right direction. 

Opinions of Biden’s presidency have narrowed since July: Fewer likely voters disapprove of the job he’s doing, while 44% approve. 

Still, when given few words to chose from, the overall sentiment of Americans appears glum – to say the least.

Contributing: Susan Page, Sarah Elbeshbishi, Ken Tran, Dylan Wells

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