The midterm elections will determine control of Congress and with it the fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
Democrats are unlikely to retain control of both the House and Senate, analysts and experts project. With Republicans well-positioned to take control of at least the House, Biden is likely to face roadblocks as he finishes the last two years of his term.
The degree to which Republicans can stall Biden’s agenda depends on their margins of victory after Tuesday’s elections. Here’s what could happen if the GOP wrests back at least some control of Washington.
A GOP House would open new investigations – a lot of them
When Democrats took control of the House as part of the 2018 blue wave, they started a flurry of investigations into then-President Donald Trump’s administration and his business dealings, including probes of his tax returns and later, the role he played in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.
Republicans have been itching to do the same. If they get control of the House next year, expect a lot of investigations into Biden’s programs and his son Hunter Biden’s financial dealings.
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Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee, is expected to chair the most powerful investigative panel in the chamber. Comer has vowed to aggressively investigate Hunter Biden’s financial dealings and compliance with tax laws. Republicans have questioned whether Hunter Biden has compromised the presidency and national security through his business dealings in China and Ukraine.
“The reason we are investigating Hunter Biden is because we believe he is a national security threat. But we are also concerned that Hunter’s shady business dealings have compromised Joe Biden,” Comer told Fox News in October.
A GOP majority could also open investigations into the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Department of Justice.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, positioned to become speaker of the House should the GOP take the chamber, has vowed to immediately open an inquiry into the FBI’s search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
“When Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts and leave no stone unturned,” McCarthy said.
A bigger platform for ultraconservatives
If McCarthy becomes speaker, he could have to hold together a potentially unwieldy majority, some of whose members are demanding an aggressive accounting of the Biden administration. Depending on how slim a GOP majority is, the House Freedom Caucus, which includes some of the House’s most conservative lawmakers, could expand its influence.
The caucus, made up of some 30 members, has so far remained neutral in leadership elections while cognizant of the power it wields.
“If you’ve got 30 votes in a narrow majority, you can be influential.” Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., a and member of the Freedom Caucus, told Axios.
The Freedom Caucus has had a hand in leadership changes before. Then-House Speaker John Boehner was forced to resign in 2015 in part because of the caucus’ opposition to him.
While McCarthy is likely to face no real opposition in a bid for speaker – in part because no rival has emerged – he would have to walk a tightrope between moving legislation and tempering hard-right Republicans.
Threat of impeachment looms
Some House Republicans have been clamoring to impeach Biden if the GOP takes control of the House. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., one of the Republican Conference’s most fiercely outspoken members, has introduced articles of impeachment against Biden multiple times.
However, McCarthy has tried to temper conversations surrounding impeachment, telling reporters, “We will not play politics with it.”
House Republicans are being cautious with impeachment. Such a move would garner high media attention and could backfire if voters disapprove. Several of them were in office during the 1990s, when the GOP impeachment of Bill Clinton led to the loss of some GOP congressional seats and boosted the president’s popularity.
Even if Biden were impeached, the Senate would hold a trial that would require a two-thirds majority to convict Biden, a near-impossible task.
Another possible impeachment target would be two of Biden’s Cabinet members: Attorney General Merrick Garland, for the Justice Department’s investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents; and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, for the administration’s handling of the record migrant surge on the Southern border.
Aid to Ukraine could slow
Should the GOP take the House, continued U.S. aid to Ukraine as it fends off a Russian invasion is up in the air. McCarthy told Punchbowl News that a Republican House won’t write a “blank check” to Ukraine, suggesting that Republicans would limit or halt funding to Ukraine.
Republicans have been divided over approving more aid to Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has pushed the White House to expedite the shipment of military weapons. McCarthy and other Republicans have expressed skepticism over continued aid, citing the national debt as a reason to limit funding.
What legislation can pass?
If the GOP takes back the Senate, McConnell would reclaim his post as Senate majority leader, allowing him to set the chamber’s agenda.
McConnell during his previous tenure as majority leader was criticized by opponents as an obstructionist. The self-proclaimed “grim reaper” of the Senate has already said he is “100%” focused on stopping Biden’s agenda.
Any Democratic legislation that arrives in the Senate would have to go through McConnell, who has in the past left plenty of Democratic House bills in legislative limbo.
If the GOP takes the House, expect a Republican majority to push through legislation with traditional conservative points: tax cuts and a reduction in government spending.
A House Republican agenda revealed in September titled a “Commitment to America” outlined various legislative goals for a GOP majority that also include increased fossil-fuel production. But with Biden still in the White House, the GOP would have to contend with his veto pen.
Biden’s influence on the judiciary could wane
Biden has nominated and seen more federal judges confirmed than any other president at this point in his term since John F. Kennedy. But if the GOP picks up the Senate, his influence on the judiciary could come to a halt.
McConnell is well-known for blocking President Barack Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court, Garland. When Garland was nominated, McConnell refused to have the chamber take up a confirmation vote for more than 11 months, letting Garland’s nomination expire. Ultimately, Trump was able to fill the seat with conservative Neil Gorsuch.
And should a Supreme Court vacancy open up, Democrats worry McConnell could hold a Biden nominee indefinitely with the hopes of a Republican taking the Oval Office in 2025 and nominating a conservative judge.
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